I love opening week. Everything is possible. Every team has a chance. And we’re already speaking hyperbolically about everybody we’ve seen, even though there are like, 159 games left. “The Red Sox need pitching! They have nothing after David Price!” That was the consensus around baseball this past week. And at that point Boston was 1-1. “The Cardinals have no hitting! Their pitching will have to carry them all season!” That was another one. At that point St. Louis was 0-1. And so forth and so on. I mean, both are probably true. But it’s April. You didn’t even know who Trevor Story was a week ago. You might forget all about him by June. And by the time I write this next week, the Padres might have more RBI than Kenta Maeda. We don’t really know. All that being said, I think it’s about time I put out my official predictions for the season to come for the very last time and also look at the Opening Week that was.
I’m going with the Toronto Blue Jays. But mainly because I’m buying in on Marcus Stroman. I like the swag. I like that he beat Chris Archer head-to-head on opening day. And he looks like he’s going to help an otherwise so-so rotation (except for Aaron Sanchez, apparently) from ruining that great offensive output. Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion are playing for contracts. Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki are also going to hit. And Kevin Pillar is trying to out-Kiermaier Kevin Kiermaier in center field. I think they’ll repeat as the division champions.
The Orioles and Yankees may lead after a few games (and I have no idea what’s going on with Starlin Castro, other than he likes to make huge debuts and then slowly let you down over time), but I’m still not sold on the Orioles’ pitching (even though, WOW! so far) or the Yankees’ collective age. Didi Gregorius and Castro may only be 26. But they also both hit .265 last year, so let’s not act like this is Derek Jeter and Tony Lazzeri quite yet. And I love the Rays’ pitching. I just don’t think Steven Souza Jr. is going to head up that offense. And I’ve never been sold on the Red Sox. We honestly didn’t need Clay Bucholz to suck to know that rotation has no depth past Price. At least Papi seems to be hitting. And maybe Mookie Betts will eventually warrant all the overblown hype. We’ll see.
I’m picking the Royals to win the division, even though I really don’t want to. And I’ve got the Indians in the Wild Card. Edinson Volquez looked great in his debut. And we know that the Royals just do whatever it is that they do to win. I do feel like they’ve been extremely lucky with their lack of injuries the past two seasons and that the whole thing could be derailed. Because honestly, I think this division should be wide open.
I’m taking Cleveland because of their pitching. But the White Sox have that in spades too. And if they keep hitting with Jose Abreu, Adam Eaton and Todd Frazier in that lineup, I’ll completely forget about Drake LaRoche’s shitty homeschooling. I already gave my picks on a podcast before the season started, or I might go back and retroactively pick them. And as I type this, the Tigers are also 3-1, beating Jose Fernandez in their second game. And the 0-5 Twins need to show me something. Other than that they can lose to the Orioles.
I’m taking the Rangers to win the division and the Astros to win the Wild Card. Even though right now, it looks like Robinson Cano is going to hit 200 home runs and the Mariners will walk away with this thing. Hey, everybody seemed to pick the Mariners for the World Series last year until Cano had his worst season since 2008. He hit three bombs (one to each field) in the spring training game I saw on Easter, so who knows?
I just feel like the Rangers have too many weapons. And people are already arguing whether or not Carlos Correa is the best player in baseball. Because a rookie season and three games in 2016 trump everything Mike Trout and Bryce Harper have ever done. It’s April, like I said. This is what we do. So let’s already give awards while we’re at it…
Opening Week A.L. MVP: Starlin Castro, New York Yankees
In Castro’s debut with the Cubs in 2010, he became the first Major League player born in the 90’s. Then he homered in his first at bat. Then he set a record with 6 RBI in his debut game. Long story short, he made a lot of errors and wasn’t very good after 2011. Cut to 2016, and Castro is making the most of his Yankees debut, where he leads the league in RBI, SLG , OPS and WAR. And I don’t know if he still has the same walk-up song as he did with the Cubs, but that was THE jam.
Opening Week AL Cy Young: , Toronto Blue Jays
Advanced stats tell me it’s Jake Odorizzi of the Rays or Chris Tillman of the Orioles for striking out almost everybody he saw in those two innings, but I like the story of a guy who fought for the 5th spot in the Blue Jays’ rotation in spring training and emerged big in his first start of the season with the club. I don’t even know if he’ll end up in that rotation or in the bullpen, but whatever, man. Dude was good in the first go-round.
Opening Week A.L. Rookie of the Year: Tyler White, Houston Astros
I don’t know anything about this guy other than that he’s 25, he was a 33rd round draft pick and that he currently leads the American League in batting average and OBP. You know, after those three games.
Let’s do the National League.
I’m picking the Nationals with the Mets in the Wild Card. And that’s about exactly how things look as I type this. I’ve already written way too much about both teams. But what I didn’t know was that new acquisition and known homophobe, Daniel Murphy, would look every bit as good as Bryce Harper through the first three games for the Nationals. Also, I hate him.
I’m picking the Cubs to win it all. You already knew that. I’m not changing my mind. And after a lot of internal debate, I decided not to take the Cardinals or the Pirates in the Wild Card. And I think I might be regretting that after Pittsburgh’s three game sweep of St. Louis to start the season. If Juan Nicasio can be that #3 starter after Cole and Liriano, they’re going to be hard to put away. Not to mention Tyler Glasnow showing up in July. Plus, didn’t they start off slow last year? Ugh. The good news for me is that the Cubs are fucking ridiculous.
I was there opening day in Anaheim. There is no Jake Arrieta regression to speak of. Then Lester looked great the next game. And he seems to be getting more comfortable in the National League, pickoff moves or not. Then there’s the fact that the Cubs have scored 29 runs in three games, which is somehow second to the Dodgers, who’ve played four. The only damper was the Schwarber injury which is a sobering reminder that, while embracing the bullseye, anything can happen. As I knock on wood nervously. But the sky really is the limit for that team. And the Reds are also 4-1, but somebody does have to play the Phillies after all.
I like the Dodgers to win the division and the Giants in the Wild Card. And I said that before the Dodgers destroyed San Diego in the first three games. I expect a lot from Corey Seager and just assume they’ll buy away whatever their weaknesses are by the trade deadline. Conveniently for my choice, Clayton Kershaw (obvs), Scott Kazmir and Kenta Maeda looked great in their first starts. And Yasiel Puig could have finally decided he wants to be awesome. Inconveniently for my choice, the Giants might be even better.
They’re really deep and that park is only going to help Johnny Cueto. Who I never liked was the Arizona Diamondbacks, and they’re trying desperately to prove me right. It’s a shame AJ Pollock is out. And while Jean Segura and David Peralta seem like they’re trying to pick up the slack, it looks like that pitching staff is a dud. You know, four games in.
Opening Week N.L. MVP: Dexter Fowler, Chicago Cubs.
You may think I’m still high from Fowler’s surprise return to the Cubs in spring training. But he’s also been killing it in the first three games (and almost killing Kyle Schwarber in the process) going 7 for 12 with a double, a triple and a home run. And with that tiny sample size, he’s tied for the Major League lead in WAR and 4th in the Majors in wOBA. And Schwarber really had no chance at that ball.
Opening Week N.L. Cy Young: Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets.
Of all the great one game pitching performances in the past week, Syndergaard’s was probably the best. The Royals can play “American Woman” when he takes the mound all they want. Thor doesn’t care. And either does that nasty slider.
Opening Week N.L. Rookie of the Year: Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies.
Eventually we’ll all get over his last name. But in the past week, Story became the first player in Major League history to hit home runs in his first three games. Including two off of Zack Greinke in the opener. His first four big league hits were also home runs. And he hasn’t even played in Denver yet. He may not be the best hitter on his team thus far (that would be DJ LeMahieu), but if you want to forget all about Troy Tulowitzki and Jose Reyes, he’s your man.
Okay, we did it. One week in the books. And there’s a long way to go. Check back next week, where everything will be thrown out the window and we’ll start all over. You gotta love April.
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